{"id":45878,"date":"2026-01-07T10:30:13","date_gmt":"2026-01-07T09:30:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/amec.es\/anticipat\/alertes-i-oportunitats\/perspectives-economiques-i-comercials-globals-gener-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-01-07T10:30:40","modified_gmt":"2026-01-07T09:30:40","slug":"perspectives-economiques-i-comercials-globals-gener-2026","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/amec.es\/ca\/anticipat\/alertes-i-oportunitats\/perspectives-economiques-i-comercials-globals-gener-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Perspectives econ\u00f2miques i comercials globals (gener 2026)"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Alertes i tend\u00e8ncies exclusives<\/a><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Perspectives econ\u00f2miques i comercials globals (gener 2026)<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t7 de gener de 2026\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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L’inici del 2026 es produeix en un context de creixement econ\u00f2mic moderat. D’una banda, l’activitat global mant\u00e9 una evoluci\u00f3 continguda sense indicis de recessi\u00f3 generalitzada. De l’altra, la ind\u00fastria europea continua exposada a una demanda exterior feble ia una pressi\u00f3 competitiva elevada. <\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Zona euro: creixement moderat i p\u00e8rdua de quota exportadora<\/strong><\/h5>

Les projeccions del Banc Central Europeu (BCE) de desembre del 2025 situen el creixement del PIB de la zona euro en 1,4% el 2025<\/strong> i 1,2% el 2026<\/strong> . Aquest aven\u00e7 se sustenta principalment en la demanda interna, amb el suport de la millora gradual dels salaris i l’increment de la despesa p\u00fablica, especialment en defensa i infraestructures. <\/p>

No obstant aix\u00f2, el BCE identifica una vulnerabilitat rellevant: la zona euro continuaria perdent quota exportadora durant el per\u00edode 2025\u20132028<\/strong> que s’explica per debilitats estructurals, una pressi\u00f3 competitiva internacional m\u00e9s gran<\/strong> , especialment des d’\u00c0sia, i per l’efecte d’un euro relativament fort, que redueix la competitivitat del producte europeu als mercats exteriors.<\/p>

Ind\u00fastria europea: estabilitzaci\u00f3 fr\u00e0gil i debilitat de les comandes exteriors<\/strong><\/h5>

El PMI manufacturer de la zona euro mostra que la producci\u00f3 va tornar a disminuir<\/strong> al desembre, despr\u00e9s de diversos mesos d?estabilitzaci\u00f3. Alemanya va tornar a registrar el pitjor resultat entre les principals economies de l’\u00e0rea<\/strong> .<\/p>

Amb vista al 2026, l’evoluci\u00f3 de la ind\u00fastria europea dependr\u00e0 en bona mesura de l’execuci\u00f3 efectiva dels est\u00edmuls anunciats a Alemanya<\/strong> i de l’augment de la despesa en defensa a escala europea, tot i que el punt de partida continua sent de demanda industrial continguda.<\/p>

Espanya: millor comportament relatiu, amb elevada exposici\u00f3 exterior<\/strong><\/h5>

Tot i els descensos tant en producci\u00f3 com en noves comandes, el comportament relatiu continua sent m\u00e9s favorable que en altres grans economies europees, i les expectatives empresarials es mantenen en nivells superiors<\/strong> a la mitjana de la zona euro.<\/p>

El principal focus de risc per a la ind\u00fastria espanyola continua sent la debilitat de la demanda externa<\/strong> , en un context de menor dinamisme en els principals socis europeus, m\u00e9s fragmentaci\u00f3 del comer\u00e7 internacional i pressi\u00f3 competitiva procedent de la Xina.<\/p>

Comer\u00e7 i cadenes de subministrament: capacitat excedent\u00e0ria i ajustament gradual<\/strong><\/h5>

Els indicadors de comer\u00e7 i log\u00edstica apunten a un inici del 2026 amb capacitat global excedent\u00e0ria i nivells de compra continguts per part de les empreses industrials. Aquest entorn suggereix pressions limitades sobre els costos d’aprovisionament a curt termini<\/strong> , excepte en cas de noves mesures aranzel\u00e0ries o disrupcions espec\u00edfiques. <\/p>

L’\u00edndex de volatilitat de la cadena de subministrament de GEP mostra menys intensitat de compres, especialment a Am\u00e8rica del Nord, associada a ajustaments d’inventaris despr\u00e9s del tancament de l’exercici.<\/p>

En el transport mar\u00edtim de contenidors, la demanda des d’\u00c0sia es mant\u00e9 ferma a l’avantsala de l’Any Nou xin\u00e8s, cosa que ha contribu\u00eft a sostenir tarifes estables a les principals rutes. Tot i aix\u00f2, s’anticipa una moderaci\u00f3 de la demanda a partir del mar\u00e7<\/strong> , coincidint amb el retorn de capacitat a la ruta \u00c0sia-Europa a trav\u00e9s de Suez, cosa que podria alleujar pressions log\u00edstiques en el segon trimestre. <\/p>

Entorn econ\u00f2mic global: fragmentaci\u00f3 i canvi de pesos relatius<\/strong><\/h5>

Les pol\u00edtiques aranzel\u00e0ries dels Estats Units continuaran condicionant les perspectives<\/strong> de comer\u00e7 i d’inversi\u00f3 durant l’any.<\/p>

Destaca la consolidaci\u00f3 de l’\u00cdndia com a quarta economia mundial en termes de nominal PIB. Segons les previsions del CEBR, s’espera que l’\u00cdndia pugi fins a la<\/strong> tercera posici\u00f3 al r\u00e0nquing global abans del 2030<\/strong> , superant Alemanya. Aquesta evoluci\u00f3 refor\u00e7a el pes d’\u00c0sia no nom\u00e9s com a plataforma productiva, sin\u00f3 tamb\u00e9 com a mercat final i com a eix de reorganitzaci\u00f3 dels fluxos comercials i productius. <\/p>

Mat\u00e8ries primeres: evoluci\u00f3 desigual i focus en metalls industrials<\/strong><\/h5>

La pressi\u00f3 sobre els preus s’ha moderat en energia i en diverses categories d’insums industrials. En contrast, alguns metalls industrials van registrar pujades rellevants<\/strong> al llarg del 2025, amb increments en coure i estany. Aquesta evoluci\u00f3 est\u00e0 associada a una demanda vinculada a usos tecnol\u00f2gics i restriccions puntuals d’oferta. <\/p>

De cara al 2026, el principal risc no \u00e9s un encariment generalitzat dels insums, sin\u00f3 la volatilitat en mat\u00e8ries primeres espec\u00edfiques<\/strong> , en un context de demanda final feble a Europa.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Amplia aquesta informaci\u00f3 al CoLAB<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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Vols m\u00e9s informaci\u00f3? Contacta'ns! <\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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    <\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    L’inici del 2026 es produeix en un context de creixement econ\u00f2mic moderat. D’una banda, l’activitat global mant\u00e9 una evoluci\u00f3 continguda sense indicis de recessi\u00f3 generalitzada. De l’altra, la ind\u00fastria europea continua exposada a una demanda exterior feble ia una pressi\u00f3 competitiva elevada. Zona euro: creixement moderat i p\u00e8rdua de quota exportadora Les projeccions del Banc […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":0,"parent":5934,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"elementor_canvas","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[219],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45878","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry","category-alertes-i-tendencies-exclusives"],"yoast_head":"\nPerspectives econ\u00f2miques i comercials globals (gener 2026) | amec Positive Industry<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/amec.es\/ca\/anticipat\/alertes-i-oportunitats\/perspectives-economiques-i-comercials-globals-gener-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ca_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Perspectives econ\u00f2miques i comercials globals (gener 2026) | amec Positive Industry\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"L’inici del 2026 es produeix en un context de creixement econ\u00f2mic moderat. 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