The following are selected highlights from the World Bank’s October 2025 Commodity Markets Outlook.

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GLOBAL FORECASTS

The overall commodity index will fall 7.4% in 2025 and another 6.8% in 2026, after peaking in 2022. However, prices will remain 14% above pre-pandemic 2019 levels.

The drop is led by energy (-12.4% in 2025 and -10.2% in 2026), while non-energy products will show more modest changes (+1.8% in 2025 and -1.6% in 2026).

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EXPLANATORY FACTORS FOR THE DOWNWARD FORECASTS

• Weak economic activity: Global growth remains below potential, especially in China.
• Trade tensions: U.S. tariffs of 50% on semi-finished copper products and trade restrictions on soybeans are disrupting global trade flows.
• Political uncertainty: The high level of uncertainty in economic policy is holding back investment and consumption of durable goods.
• Depreciation of the dollar: Without this factor, the fall in dollar prices would have been even greater.

• Structural oversupply of oil. Global supply exceeds demand at levels not seen since 2020.
• Slowdown in the Chinese real estate sector, which is weighing on demand, although investments in renewable energies and electric vehicles provide partial support.
• Abundant supply conditions for key agricultural crops, with ample global inventories.

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AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS AND FOOD

The agricultural index will remain practically stable in 2025 (+0.2%) and will fall slightly in 2026 (-2.2%).

Food: 6.1% decline in 2025, with stability in 2026 (-0.3%). The three subcomponents will show narrow ranges:

• Grains: Sharp drop of 10.8% in 2025 due to abundant supply (especially rice, wheat and corn), stabilization in 2026.
• Oils and meals: 3% decrease in 2025, practically flat in 2026.

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Beverages: After the strong rebound of 17.8% in 2025 (driven by weather issues in coffee and cocoa), a correction of 7.2% is expected in 2026 as supply conditions improve.

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METALS AND MINERALS (BASE)

The base metals index will rise by 4.9% in 2025 and just 0.9% in 2026, reflecting contrasting forces:

• Copper: Will reach nominal record highs in 2026. Anticipated shipments to the United States before the August tariffs raised inventories and demand for energy transition supports prices.
• Aluminum: Moderate increase, driven by EU restrictions on Russian aluminum and infrastructure demand.
• Tin: Will remain at historic highs due to its critical role in clean technologies and Myanmar’s export restrictions.
• Iron ore: The only exception with declines due to the prolonged crisis in the Chinese real estate sector.

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Metals market factors

• Demand for energy transition: Investments in renewables, electric vehicles and electric infrastructure support prices.
• Trade restrictions: U.S. tariffs and export bans (Indonesia on copper and nickel) are fragmenting markets.
• Weak industrial activity: Global political uncertainty continues to dampen investment in equipment and construction.