According to JLL’s latest 2026 U.S. Construction Perspective report, the U.S. construction market enters 2026 with greater strategic clarity after a 2025 marked by uncertainty.

Trade and regulatory policies continue to reshape material costs and labor availability, intensifying structural pressures on the sector.

At the same time, segments such as data centers, utilities and infrastructure show the capacity to absorb these increases and sustain growth, creating an uneven but fertile scenario for identifying opportunities in an environment of rising costs and selective demand.

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Impact of Trade Policy on Materials Costs

• Increasing Cost Pressures: Cost pressures from policy changes are expected to intensify in 2026. Cost growth related to trade policy will materialize further throughout the year, adding to natural increases.
• Magnitude of Tariffs: Although the average increase in material prices in 2025 was 4.2% above 2024 prices, this was below the expected long-term increases attributable to tariffs. Estimates of the total long-term impact of tariffs can range from 5% to 25% depending on the material, with an estimated aggregate increase of about 8% under current policy levels.
• Net Increasing Cost: Reductions in interest rates will not change the underlying escalation in material prices or labor challenges caused by trade and immigration policies. The interaction of policies will result in a net increase in construction costs. The impacts on trade and labor costs are anticipated to compound more quickly and significantly than the expected easing of interest rates.

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Key Materials Positioning

According to the analysis, the following materials divisions project a significantly high “Upper bound of full tariff impact,” implying that trade policy uncertainty directly impacts the deliverability and cost of these products:

• Metals: Projected to be among the categories with the highest tariff impact, near the 25% upper limit.
• Electric: Projected with a very high impact, suggesting a strong dependence on imports or a particularly policy-sensitive supply chain.
• HVAC: Shows a very high potential tariff impact.
• Plumbing: Projected with a very high potential tariff impact.
• Finishes: Shows a significant tariff impact.

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Sectorial Opportunities

Despite overall construction spending declining by 4.7% in real value terms in 2025, certain sectors demonstrated remarkable resilience and offer strategic opportunities:

• Key Resilient Sectors: Data centers, utilities and infrastructure demonstrated robust growth. These sectors have solid enough fundamentals to absorb higher construction costs, creating opportunities for organizations connected to them.
• Adaptive Projects: Creative and adaptive projects are advancing, such as office-to-residential conversions, which nearly doubled by 2025. Overall projected growth in real construction spending by 2026 is 0.4%.