Global Economic Outlook

UNCTAD projects global growth to slow to 2.6% in 2025 and 2026, down from 2.9% in 2024. This slowdown reflects persistent geopolitical uncertainty, trade policy volatility and the impact of U.S. tariffs.

The dynamism observed in early 2025 was driven by specific sectors, particularly the accelerated deployment of AI technologies andfrontloading of imports by businesses and consumers in anticipation of the entry into force of tariff measures. However, overall investment spending remains subdued, limiting prospects for sustained expansion.

• United States: Will experience a substantial slowdown (1.8% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026).
• The European Union: slow growth (1.3% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026).
• China: Stable at 5.0% by 2025, before moderating to 4.6% in 2026, thanks to the diversification of its export markets to ASEAN and Africa, and expansionary fiscal policies.
• India: Continues to stand out with 6.4% growth in both years, driven by public and private investment.

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Global Trade: Moderate Growth and Mixed Prospects

World trade in goods will grow 6% in 2025 in value terms, partially driven by higher prices, according to UNCTAD. Projections are more conservative when looking at trade in volume terms: the WTO estimates goods trade volume growth at 2.4% by 2025.

By 2026, the WTO estimates 0.5% growth for goods trade volume as the full effects of tariffs are felt and the momentum of frontloading dissipates.

AI-related trade has accounted for approximately 15.5% of global trade in goods, especially in economies such as the United States. East Asia, Africa and South-South trade have been the main drivers of world trade in 2025, reinforcing the diversification and resilience of the global trading system.

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Manufacturing Activity and Production Dynamics

The November PMI data show that, at a global level, manufacturing activity continued to grow in November, although with less dynamism. Both production and new orders expanded, but to a lesser extent. Countries such as Thailand, India, Vietnam and Colombia lead in terms of the production index.

However, new export orders declined for the eighth consecutive month worldwide, evidencing that market uncertainty continues to weaken international trade flows.

In the euro zone, the picture is more worrisome. The manufacturing PMI fell to 49.6, indicating contraction in the sector as a whole. Germany and France recorded their lowest manufacturing PMIs in nine months. In France, political uncertainty is postponing investment decisions, while in Germany there is dissatisfaction with the performance of the federal government.

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Prices and Costs

In the euro zone, input costs rose sharply, the strongest since March. In contrast, selling prices of manufactured goods fell for the sixth time in the last seven months, reflecting limited pricing power on the part of manufacturers in the face of weak demand.

European companies also report material shortages at suppliers and difficulties in purchasing items from international suppliers.

The price of copper has soared in 2025: it is more than 25-30% higher than a year ago. The movement does not seem to be merely punctual, but linked to a structural deficit between supply and demand.

• Demand is strongly driven by the energy transition: renewables, power grids, electrification of transportation and energy-intensive data centers and cabling.
• Mining supply is not growing at the same pace due to lack of sufficient investment, very long lead times to open new mines and operational/regulatory problems in key producers (Chile, Peru, etc.).
• This is compounded by trade tensions (e.g. U.S. tariffs on copper products and response from other countries).