Global manufacturing activity: moderate recovery with reservations

The global manufacturing sector improved in early 2026, recording in January the steepest output growth since June 2024. Global new orders increased, supported by a near stabilization of export orders. India, the United Statesand the ASEAN economies (led by Vietnam) stood out for their industrial expansion.

However, important areas of tension remain. Brazil and Mexico experienced significant recessions, largely attributed to U.S. tariffs. In Europe, although increased fiscal spending (especially on defense) is expected to boost manufacturing output, the current reality is more sobering. The Eurozone saw growth lose momentum due to falling new orders, despite business confidence reaching its highest level since February 2022.

Cost pressures: highest increase in three years

One of the factors of greatest concern at the beginning of 2026 is the accelerated increase in global production costs, which reached their highest growth in three years in January. This increase translates into the largest increase in ex-factory selling prices in nearly three years.

Prices of key industrial inputs have risen sharply. Copper, steel and other industrial metals rose in January. Energy costs also rose, although this could be largely related to the unusually cold winter in Europe and the United States.

In the Euro Zone and Spain in particular, factories are facing intensifying cost pressures, with increases in raw materials such as aluminum and copper. The situation is complicated by the fact that intense competition and weak demand severely limit the ability to pass on these higher costs to customers. Prices charged remained virtually unchanged, indicating limited pricing power and, therefore, margin compression.

Spain: slowdown in orders and cost pressure

The Spanish manufacturing sector is facing a challenging start to the year. New orders at Spanish factories declinedin January due to the reluctance of domestic and international customers to commit to new contracts and investments. Export volumes slowed sharply, reflecting weak global demand.

Despite this negative trend in orders, production remained virtually unchanged, suggesting that companies are working with the existing backlog.

Despite this complex outlook, Spanish manufacturers remain remarkably optimistic for the next twelve months, anticipating stable demand throughout 2026 and confident that ongoing investments and new projects launched will bear fruit. However, intense competition from outside Europe and geopolitical and commercial uncertainties are prompting customers to delay investment decisions.

Trade and investment: profound reconfiguration underway

World trade is undergoing a profound structural reorganization. After growing by 3.8% in 2025 (driven in part by orders brought forward ahead of new tariffs) it is expected to moderate to 2.2% in 2026.

At the same time, new regional trade networks are emerging. Companies are diversifying supply chains, relocating production and exploring new routes beyond traditional markets. Today, 57% of developing country exports are destined for other developing markets, up from 38% in 1995.

In terms of foreign direct investment (FDI), of particular concern is the 16% drop in the number of greenfield projects (mainly in industrial sectors) although their total value remained high thanks to large investments in data centers, AI and semiconductors. Projects in industries intensive in global value chains(electronics, automotive, machinery, textiles) fell in both number and value, reflecting a strategic realignment of global production networks.

International logistics: Chinese New Year

Freight rates declined ahead of the Chinese New Year, and the Drewry World Container Index (WCI) declined mainly due to declines on the Transpacific and Asia-Europe routes. Notably, the traditional pre-Lunar New Year cargo boom failed to materialize in 2026, signaling weakness in underlying demand.

As for the Red Sea detour, CMA CGM, MSC and Maersk are leading the return to the Suez route with large vessels, while smaller carriers continue to avoid the Yemen area. The Cape of Good Hope remains the main route to connect Asia and Europe, although the number of vessels transiting there has decreased.

Perspectives: adaptability as a key

The 2026 environment is not catastrophic, but it is not easy either. The IMF projects global growth of 3.3% (same as in 2025) resulting from balancing opposing forces. Technological investment (especially in AI), accommodative financial conditions and fiscal stimulus in key economies (US, China) support growth. But the risks are significant: excessive expectations about AI productivity, high public debt and persistent geopolitical tensions.

For internationalized industrial companies, this context calls for strategy, adaptability and the ability to offer differentiated value. The reconfiguration of global trade is creating new hubs and routes: countries with solid infrastructure, skilled labor and stable policies are better positioned to attract investment. Exploring emerging markets and diversifying geographically will become increasingly important, although it requires long-term vision and patience.

The push for more energy-efficient equipment and sustainable solutions will intensify, both by regulation and by demand from customers looking to reduce operating costs. The energy transition creates opportunities in green infrastructure, energy efficiency and advanced HVAC systems. The challenge is to turn these pressures into competitive advantage.