We provide a preview of the main key points of the document:

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Scenarios marked by uncertainty

The WTO proposes different scenarios for 2026 depending on key variables such as the evolution of the conflict in the Middle East and energy prices. The main downside risk comes from the sustained rise in energy prices, which would have a direct impact on industrial costs and global demand.

In parallel, the development of artificial intelligence acts as a bullish factor, generating a growing demand for industrial equipment, especially in areas such as semiconductors, electrical systems or data center infrastructure.

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Structural trends in global trade

The analysis identifies a progressive fragmentation of international trade, with a lower weight of trade between blocs and a significant drop in US imports from China. This context intensifies competition in emerging markets, where China is reorienting its exports with more competitive prices.

In addition, there has been an erosion of the multilateral system and an increase in unilateral tariff measures, forcing exporting companies to strengthen their market surveillance and take advantage of preferential agreements.

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Europe: weakness and energy exposure

Europe has experienced two years of export contraction and faces a fragile recovery in 2026. Forecasts point to moderate export growth (+0.5%), which could turn into a slump in an expensive energy scenario.

High energy dependence makes Europe the region most vulnerable to oil price shocks, with a direct impact on economic growth and industrial competitiveness.

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Strategic implications for amec companies

amec’s analysis highlights a short-term environment marked by weak non-AI industrial demand, rising energy costs and tariff uncertainty.

However, it also identifies relevant opportunities. These include the growth in demand associated with artificial intelligence and the dynamism of emerging markets such as Africa, Asia and Latin America, as well as the reconfiguration of global value chains.