In this note, amec analyzes the situation, challenges and prospects for Spanish merchandise exports presented in the IMF’ s March assessment of Spain‘s economic situation.

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Main conclusions

Merchandise exports are in a phase of lower dynamism compared to previous years. Sustained economic growth will depend on continued strong domestic demand and the ability of services to offset the weakness of trade in goods, always under the threat of an international environment marked by protectionism and geopolitical instability.

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Current Status of Exports of Goods

In contrast to the dynamism shown by domestic demand and certain service sectors, merchandise exports have shown a weakened or contained performance. While the Spanish economy grew by 2.8 % in 2025, this growth was mainly supported by private consumption and investment, offsetting the weakness of the external goods sector.

Negative Impact Factors

The report identifies specific causes that have hindered trade in goods:

• Tariffs in the United States: There was an explicit drop in exports to the United States as a direct consequence of the increases in tariffs imposed by that country.
• Contrast with the services sector: There is a duality in the external sector; while exports of goods are stagnant, exports of non-tourism services (especially business and ICT services) have shown robust growth that has helped balance the trade balance.

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External and Geopolitical Risks

The future of merchandise exports is subject to several significant risks:

• Trade tensions: An escalation in geopolitical tensions and the implementation of new protectionist trade measures are considered key external risks that could affect both Spain and the global economy.
• Conflict in the Middle East: Although the main impact is expected through energy prices (especially oil), an intensification of the conflict could generate greater uncertainty affecting external demand for Spanish products.

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Structural Initiatives and Competitiveness

In order to improve the external projection of Spanish companies, the following strategies have been identified:

• Integration into the European Union: Spain continues to work with its European partners to deepen the single market for goods and services, seeking to reduce the administrative barriers that limit cross-border trade.
• Productivity and business size: The report highlights that productivity growth (key to export competitiveness) is held back by obstacles such as fragmented regulation across regions and the complex system of R&D incentives. It is estimated that reforms aimed at reducing administrative burdens and improving financing could raise productivity growth by 0.25 percentage points.