Global macroeconomic environment

Despite a strong start to 2026, the conflict in the Middle East creates a real risk of an energy shock. In the IMF’s baseline scenario, which assumes a relatively rapid normalization, global GDP growth is projected to be close to 3% for the year as a whole, with headline inflation likely to rise by around 0.3 percentage points. More adverse scenarios would push the world economy into stagflation.

The US is facing the shock with an advantage: its GDP grew by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026, supported by fixed capital investment (driven by AI) and private consumption. US PMIs for April improved in both manufacturing and services. Nonetheless, headline inflation reached 3.3% in March, with risk of further increases.

China remained dynamic with growth of 1.3% quarter-on-quarter (5.0% year-on-year) in the first quarter, although its domestic demand remains fragile. India is the world’s most dynamic market, with the highest rate of economic activity. Brazil recorded the strongest rebound in more than a year. Turkey, on the other hand, is at the bottom of the global ranking.

By sector, the overall picture is also mixed. Pharmaceuticals and biotechnology lead global production growth in April, followed by machinery and equipment. In Europe, the automotive and components sector leads expansion for the second consecutive month, with the strongest growth rate in three years.

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Euro Zone and Spain: most affected

The Eurozone is the region hardest hit by the conflict, according to PMI data from S&P Global. In April, composite activity fell for the first time in 16 months, dragged down by the slump in services.Eurozone manufacturing offers a seemingly positive reading: the manufacturing PMI rose to 52.2 in April, but the indicator itself warns that growth is artificial, driven by advance buying and stockpiling of inventories.

Manufacturers’ selling price inflation in April recorded the largest monthly increase since the Eurozone PMI survey has been available. Since February, the purchasing price index has risen 19 points. Business optimism for the next twelve months fell to its lowest level since November 2024.

By country, Germany grew by 0.3% in the first quarter, but infrastructure spending remains 14% below the level of a year ago and the government has halved its growth forecast for 2026 to 0.5%. France stagnated even before the conflict, and Italy is particularly hard hit by rising energy prices as fossil fuels generate almost half of its electricity.

Spain shows remarkable resilience. GDP grew by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2026 (2.7% year-on-year), supported by private consumption and investment. Headline inflation moderated in April thanks to lower electricity prices. In the manufacturing sector, the Spanish PMI rebounded strongly to 51.7 in April (the highest since July 2025), driven, as in the rest of Europe, by customer stockpiling.

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Cost alert: energy, raw materials and transportation

This is the section with the greatest impact for industrial manufacturers in the short term. April saw the largest increase in input costs since June 2022. All countries for which data is available recorded cost increases. S&P Global’s commodity indicators confirm that all 25 products monitored showed above-average price pressures in April, which is unprecedented outside the pandemic.

Oil is the central element: reported shortages reach ten times the usual level. Global transportation costs reached a record high for the entire series in April, reflecting fuel surcharges and skyrocketing ocean freight rates.

The GEP supply chain volatility index jumped from 0.57 in March to 1.64 in April, its highest level since October 2022, with Asia as the most affected region and Europe as the most aggressively stockpiling inventories.

For companies in industrial sectors exposed to plastics raw materials, metals, electronic components or packaging, the signal is unmistakable: PVC, polymers and semiconductors are at multi-year highs in terms of shortages and prices. Supplier lead times lengthened in April to the greatest extent since August 2022.

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International logistics: the Strait of Hormuz and the reconfiguration of routes

Two months after the start of the conflict, 42 container ships of major shipping lines are still immobilized in the Persian Gulf. Two MSC vessels have been seized by Iranian authorities. Only COSCO has managed to extract two vessels through second transit attempts. The number of vessels in daily transit dropped to practically zero.

The market is undergoing a logistical reconfiguration. MSC and Maersk have deployed land corridors through Saudi Arabia connecting the Gulf with Red Sea ports (Jeddah, King Abdullah). Alternative ports such as Khor Fakkan (UAE), Salalah (Oman) and Aqaba (Jordan) have multiplied their bookings. Jeddah quadrupled its import bookings in April. The Asia-Europe peak season has been brought forward to the second quarter.

The Drewry World Container Index rose 3% in the week to May 7 after three weeks of declines, with Transpacific up on bunker surcharges (PSS) and emergency surcharges (EFS) applied by CMA CGM and MSC. For the Asia-Northern Europe route, effective capacity will fall by 3% month-on-month in May and by up to 10% on the Asia-Mediterranean route. The outlook points to a further increase in freight rates in the second half of May, with the market severely short of vessels.