A world of modest growth in a complex environment

10 de February de 2026

UNCTAD describes an environment where countries are less able to respond to economic shocks, which increases potential volatility. For export-dependent companies, this means we need to be prepared for rapid adjustments.

The environment described in the latest UNCTAD report is not catastrophic, but it is not easy either. It is one that will reward strategy, adaptability, and the ability to offer differentiated value.

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The reconfiguration of global trade

Global trade is undergoing a profound reorganization. Companies are diversifying supply chains, relocating production, and South-South trade is growing significantly. This is crucial for your partners.

New regional trade networks are emerging, with a significant expansion of trade between developing countries. There are new trade routes to explore beyond traditional markets.


China: between opportunity and threat

China has a mixed profile. Its growth is slowing, but it continues to export massively, diversifying into other Asian markets and Europe, not just the USA.

This has two implications:

  • It continues to be an important market with domestic demand supported by government policies.
  • Chinese competition in third markets is likely to intensify as they seek to offset difficulties in the U.S. market.
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Europe: a market with structural challenges

European growth is modest (1.3% in 2026) and the report is quite clear about the structural problems limiting productivity growth and production potential.

For Spanish companies, this is a double-edged sword:

  • Europe is our natural market, nearby, with known regulations.
  • It is a market that is growing slowly and where European companies are also struggling with these same structural problems, which may limit their ability to invest in new equipment.
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Africa and Latin America: long-term potential, but with
care

The important thing to understand here is that these markets require a long-term strategy and patience.

The advantage is that they are diversifying their trading partners, which opens up opportunities for European exporters that have not traditionally been dominant in these markets.

For industrial equipment, food processing machinery, or urban infrastructure equipment, development projects are underway. But financing will be a key challenge, given reduced official development assistance and limited fiscal space.

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Sustainability: growing pressure and opportunities
  • Regulatory and market pressure towards more energy-efficient equipment and sustainable solutions will intensify. Customers will increasingly demand equipment that reduces their carbon footprint, not only because of regulation but also because it reduces operating costs (more expensive energy).
  • The energy transition is generating demand for new equipment. The COP30 Belém Package commits to triple funding for climate adaptation by 2035 and launches a Just Transition Mechanism. This means there will be investment in green infrastructure, energy efficiency, more efficient HVAC systems, improved industrial ventilation, etc.
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Strategic recommendations for members of
amec

Based on this analysis, several strategic priorities stand out:

Active geographic diversification

It is not just a matter of “being present” in multiple markets, but of having differentiated strategies by region:

  • India should be a high priority with dedicated resources.
  • China remains important, but requires more caution and attention to specific sectors that are receiving government support.
  • Europe needs a value proposition focused on efficiency, sustainability and digitalization.
  • African and Latin American markets are medium to long-term bets that require patience and potentially creative financing structures.

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2. Sustainability as a competitive differentiator, not as compliance.

  • Companies that can clearly demonstrate how their equipment reduces energy costs, reduces emissions, improves resource efficiency, will have a significant competitive advantage.
  • It’s not just about complying with regulations, it’s about helping customers save money while being more sustainable.

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3. Digitization and embedded intelligence

Equipment that incorporates digital capabilities (sensors, connectivity, data analytics, predictive maintenance) will have a growing competitive advantage. Customers want equipment that helps them optimize their own operations, not just perform a mechanical function well.

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4. Financing as a service

Given that access to credit is uneven and many target markets face fiscal constraints, companies that can offer financing solutions (leasing, pay-as-you-go, partnerships with financial institutions) will be able to close more sales. This is especially relevant for developing markets.

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5. Flexibility and resilience in supply chains

The reconfiguration of global trade means that supply chains will continue to adjust. Companies need to have diversified suppliers, the ability to react quickly, and ideally some degree of modular production that allows for adjustments based on component availability.

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6. Capacity building in emerging markets

In markets where skilled labor is limited, offering training, robust technical support, and maintenance services can be as important as the equipment itself. This also helps build long-term relationships and exit barriers for customers.

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7. Collaboration and consortia

Given the complexity of the environment, it makes sense for companies to explore collaborations to enter new markets, share costs of developing new capabilities (especially digital), or present more comprehensive joint offerings to large customers.

Resources
UNCTAD. World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026

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