According to the IMF’s April forecast, the world economy is facing a large supply shock triggered by the Middle East conflict that started at the end of February 2026. This event has reversed previous trends, raising the global inflation expectation to 4.4% by 2026.

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Energy: Prices at Critical Levels

The energy sector is the most affected due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on infrastructures.

• Oil: Brent crude oil shows a vertical climb in April 2026. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that prices peaked at USD 130 per barrel, which is USD 60 above pre-conflict levels.
• Natural Gas: Prices in Europe (TTF) rose 61% between August 2025 and March 2026. The Ras Laffan complex in Qatar, which produces 93% of Gulf LNG, has been virtually shut down since March 2, and full recovery could take 3-5 years.

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Metals and Industrial Supplies

Metal indices show sustained upward pressure due to the energy crisis and mining accidents.

• Aluminum: It has experienced steep price increases due to the closure of smelters in the Middle East and Iceland because of the energy crisis. GEP reports that its availability is deteriorating rapidly, creating bottlenecks in the industry.
• Copper: Prices remain at historically high levels. In addition to the energy crisis, supply has been constrained by mining accidents in Chile and Indonesia.
• Steel: The price has climbed in March/April 2026, following an upward trend since late 2025.

• Semiconductors: The Philadelphia SOX index reflects a strong upward trend. S&P Global identifies semiconductors as the component leading global price increases and supply pressures.

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Food and Agriculture

Prices have rebounded from historic lows and overall food is expected to rise by 6% in 2026. There is a notable divergence between the different agricultural sub-sectors:

• Fertilizers: Food prices are expected to rise by 6% in 2026 due to rising gas and fertilizers, such as urea, whose price has skyrocketed. The IMF warns that this puts the food security of 45 million people at risk.
• Cocoa: It has experienced a significant decline. This decline is attributed to favorable climatic conditions in West Africa.
• Coffee: The drop in prices responds to record harvests in Brazil.

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Transportation and Supply Chain

Supply chain pressures have reached their highest level in three years. The trigger for everything is the war in the Middle East, which is affecting global shipping routes very significantly.

• Supplier lead times have lengthened to the greatest level in more than three and a half years, both in the Eurozone and globally. In Spain, this lengthening is the most pronounced since September 2022.
• Transportation cost: The war-related oil price shock pushed global transportation costs in March to the highest level in almost four years, with Asia being the hardest hit region due to its dependence on Middle Eastern oil.
• Company behavior: Manufacturers respond with preventive stockpiling. Reports of stockpiling reached their highest level in three years, with Europe being where this phenomenon was most intense. At the same time, manufacturers reduced their purchasing volumes due to uncertainty, which generates a strange combination: less real demand but more perceived shortages, which is already creating bottlenecks in materials such as polymers, PVC, rubber, aluminum and copper.

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Risks and Prospects

The IMF warns that, if damage to energy infrastructure is permanent, oil prices could double from their January 2026 base, pushing global inflation above 6% and reducing global growth to recessionary levels. Currently, Red Sea transit remains stuck at half of its 2023 levels.