The “2026 FDI Outlook” report by fDi Intelligence (Financial Times) gathers the perspectives of 101 FDI experts from around the world. These are their forecasts:

Strategic sectors drive FDI

Strategic sectors will continue to drive foreign direct investment in 2026. Particularly noteworthy is the return of the defense and aerospace industry, which is experiencing a significant revival after years of subdued activity.

Sectors gaining importance as sources of global FDI include semiconductors, critical materials, communication infrastructure, and aerospace and defense. On the other hand, plastics and textiles lose relevance. As for industrial equipment, opinions are divided: 49% of respondents believe it will maintain its current level of importance, while 42% believe it will gain in importance.

Risks and obstacles

Geopolitical disruption represents the biggest risk to FDI heading into 2026. Economic and financial changes rank second among concerns, with uncertainty generated by U.S. tariffs and bubble dynamics in financial markets, particularly in relation to AI, standing out.

New criteria to attract FDI

Factors that will determine a country’s attractiveness for attracting FDI include trade access to foreign partners, talent and labor pool, integration into global and regional supply chains, political stability and insulation from geopolitical risks.

The historical model of lowest cost location for FDI is beginning to show cracks. Investors will increasingly prioritize geo-economic alignment, policy predictability, market connectivity and industrial strategy credibility over low land or labor cost.

Geopolitical realignment, driven by the search for resilience in supply chains and national security considerations, will lead to a significant increase in friend-shoring investments.

Tariffs and investment screening

The majority of respondents believe that tariffs will continue to have the greatest impact on multinational corporations’ decision making.

The year 2026 will be marked by increased scrutiny of FDI in certain key sectors as geopolitical and trade tensions rise. National security will play a greater role in investment filtering, even in traditionally open economies.

More governments will adopt protectionist policies such as local content requirements, which will act as a de facto investment policy.