While the previous year was marked by uncertainty in trade rules, 2026 is defined by volatile geopolitics that directly impact energy, finance and supply chains.

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From Commercial to Military: A Paradigm Shift in Risk

As of the end of February 2026, geopolitics displaced uncertainty over trade policy as the markets’ main concern. This shift is not just one of perception; it is supported by alarming data:

• Historic record number of conflicts: An all-time high has been reached in the number of active armed conflicts involving at least one state.
• Systemic impact: The military escalation in the Middle East has generated immediate clashes in shipping lanes (such as the Strait of Hormuz) and energy markets, threatening a cascading crisis affecting food security and global financial systems.

Developing countries face more severe consequences because their energy imports are inelastic, especially in fuels, food and fertilizers.

Faced with rising oil and gas prices, countries such as Bangladesh, Brazil, Egypt, India and Vietnam, among others, have had to implement fuel subsidies or price caps. These measures are adopted at a high fiscal cost, which complicates the management of external accounts and monetary policies in a context of depreciation of their currencies against the dollar.

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The “AI Paradox” in global commerce

Although merchandise trade showed strength at the beginning of 2026, this growth is misleading due to its high concentration.

• The dynamism is driven almost exclusively by AI-enabling products, such as servers, semiconductors and high-performance computing equipment.
• In contrast, traditional sectors such as textiles, consumer staples and commodities have posted only modest gains or remain stagnant, reflecting a weak investment cycle in many developing countries.

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New alliances and reconfiguration of South-South trade

There is a trend towards the creation of more proactive and regional trade associations.

• China and Africa: In May 2026, China announced the total elimination of tariffs on products from 53 African countries, seeking to deepen their development partnership.
• United States and AGOA: The U.S. reauthorized the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) until December 31, 2026, maintaining trade preferences for the region.

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These initiatives come as South-South trade continues to gain ground, having grown from $0.5 trillion in 1995 to $6.8 trillion in 2025, already surpassing South-North trade in value.

Europe: Marginal growth and external dependence

The European Union economy is headed for a slight slowdown, projecting growth of just 1.3% by 2026.

• Countries such as Germany (0.8%) and Italy (0.3%) face stagnant domestic demand and weak consumption, forcing their economies to rely excessively on exports to the US and China.
• As a relevant note, there has been an increase in public spending and investment in the defense sector, particularly in Germany, marking a change in the region’s budgetary priorities.