Euro zone: moderate growth and loss of export quota

The European Central Bank’s (ECB) December 2025 projections put GDP growth in the euro zone at 1.4% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026. This advance is mainly sustained by domestic demand, supported by the gradual improvement in wages and the increase in public spending, especially in defense and infrastructure.

However, the ECB identifies a relevant vulnerability:the euro zone would continue to lose export share over the period 2025-2028, which is explained by structural weaknesses, greater international competitive pressure, especially from Asia, and the effect of a relatively strong euro, which reduces the competitiveness of European products in foreign markets.

European industry: fragile stabilization and weak foreign orders

The Euro zone manufacturing PMI shows that production declined again in December, after several months of stabilization. Germany once again recorded the worst performance among the major economies in the area.

Looking ahead to 2026, the evolution of European industry will depend to a large extent on the effective implementation of the stimuli announced in Germany and the increase in defense spending at European level, although the starting point remains one of subdued industrial demand.

Spain: better relative performance with high foreign exposure

Despite declines in both production and new orders, relative performance continues to be more favorable than in other major European economies, and business expectations remain at levels above the euro zone average.

The main source of risk for Spanish industry continues to be the weakness of external demand, in a context of lower dynamism in the main European partners, greater fragmentation of international trade and competitive pressure from China.

Trade and supply chains: overcapacity and gradual adjustment

Trade and logistics indicators point to an early 2026 with global spare capacity and contained purchasing levels by industrial companies. This environment suggests limited pressures on procurement costs in the near term, barring new tariff measures or specific disruptions.

GEP’s supply chain volatility index shows lower purchasing intensity, especially in North America, associated with inventory adjustments after year-end.

In container shipping, demand from Asia remains firm in the run-up to the Chinese New Year, which has helped sustain stable rates on the main routes. However, demand is expected to moderate from March onwards, coinciding with the return of capacity to the Asia-Europe route via Suez, which could alleviate logistical pressures in the second quarter.

Global economic environment: fragmentation and shifting relative weights

U.S. tariff policies will continue to condition trade and investment prospects during the year.

India’s consolidation as the world’s fourth largest economy in terms of nominal GDP stands out. According to CEBR forecasts, India is expected to climb to third place in the global ranking by 2030, overtaking Germany. This development reinforces the importance of Asia not only as a production platform, but also as an end market and a hub for the reorganization of trade and production flows.

Commodities: uneven performance and focus on industrial metals

Price pressures have moderated in energy and in several categories of industrial inputs. In contrast, some industrial metals recorded significant increases throughout 2025, with increases in copper and tin. This evolution is associated with demand linked to technological uses and specific supply restrictions.

Looking ahead to 2026, the main risk is not a generalized rise in input prices, but volatility in specific raw materials, in a context of weak final demand in Europe.