Although factories are producing more and orders are accumulating, the sector is facing a “pincer effect”: on the one hand, collapsed international logistics and soaring energy costs; and on the other, the difficulty of passing on these increases in full to customers who are already showing signs of caution.

Keys of the month

Growth at multi-year highs: Globally, the sector is showing its strongest dynamism since late 2021, with the PMI index reaching its highest level in 44 months (51.9). Business optimism has also climbed to levels not seen in nearly two years, driven by an increase in new orders and a stabilization of international trade for the first time since March 2025.

The return of inflationary pressure: Current growth is being “overshadowed” by an accelerating rise in production costs. Input inflation has reached rates not seen since late 2022, driven especially by shortages in semiconductors (priced 10.8 times above their historical trend) and base metals.

Critical threat from geopolitical conflict: The biggest factor of uncertainty is the war with Iran. Although the February data shows optimism, much of the survey was conducted before the full escalation of the conflict. The impact is already tangible with oil up a third and natural gas up 50%, coupled with 10% of the world’s container fleet being stranded in the Persian Gulf.

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The current context in detail

Manufacturing Production

The global manufacturing industry showed its strongest dynamism in almost four years in February, with the PMI index reaching 51.9 points, its highest level in 44 months.

• Globally: Production growth was the fastest since the end of 2021. Momentum came mainly from Asia (with India, Vietnam and Taiwan leading the way) and Europe, while North America experienced a slowdown.
• In the Eurozone: The sector recorded its best month in almost four years. The recovery was widespread, with six of the eight countries analyzed in expansion territory. Germany stood out by returning to growth after three and a half years of declines.
• In Spain: Contrary to the general trend, Spanish production remained stagnant (PMI of 50). The industrial sector in Spain has lost dynamism this winter, weighed down by weak demand and increasing cost pressures.

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Foreign Trade

International trade showed signs of recovery, although important regional obstacles persist.

• Global Trend: World export volume grew for the first time since March 2025, driven by China, Japan and the United Kingdom.
• Regional Performance: Both the Eurozone and the United States recorded declines in new export orders. In Spain, foreign sales continue to be a drag, affected by U.S. tariffs and the strength of the euro, although the pace of decline moderated slightly in February.

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Commodity and Input Prices

Production cost inflation has accelerated sharply, driven by supply shortages and geopolitical tensions.

• Cost inflation: Global input prices increased at the fastest pace since November 2022.
• Semiconductors and Electronics: Semiconductors recorded the highest price pressures since 2022, at 10.8 times their historical trend. Electrical items also reached three-year highs in their rates of price increases.
• Metals: Above-average price increases were reported for aluminum and copper, as well as iron and steel.
• Energy: Due to the conflict in the Middle East, oil prices have risen by a third since the beginning of the year, while liquefied natural gas has increased in price by 50%.

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Transportation & Supply Chains

Transportation has become the main bottleneck in the global industry due to war conflicts.

• Freight capacity: Reports of freight shortages are almost four times more frequent than usual.
• Logistical disruptions: Following the outbreak of hostilities with Iran, an estimated 10% of the world’s container fleet was stranded or held up in the vicinity of the Persian Gulf.
• Delivery times: Waiting times to receive supplies lengthened for the twenty-first consecutive month worldwide. In Europe, delivery delays have reached levels not seen since 2022.