The World Economic Forum’s recently published Global Risks Report 2026 paints a worrying picture: only 1% of the more than 1,300 experts consulted anticipate a “calm” scenario in the coming years. For industrial companies, this forecast calls for careful reading and an urgent adaptation strategy.

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The Risk that tops all lists: Geo-economic confrontation

For the first time, geo-economic confrontation (the use of tariffs, sanctions, investment controls and trade restrictions as strategic weapons) has climbed to the #1 ranking of global risks for both 2026 and 2028.

For the sectors represented in AMEC, the impact is direct and multiple:

• Markets at risk: 16 exporting economies identify this risk among their top five threats.
• Fragmented supply chains: Access to critical components can be interrupted without warning.
• Rising costs: Tariffs and trade barriers can raise the prices of raw materials and technological inputs.

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The Sustainability Paradox: Urgent vs. Important

The report reveals a worrying trend: while environmental risks dominate the 10-year horizon (extreme weather events, biodiversity loss and systemic ecosystem change occupy the top three positions), they have fallen in short-term priorities.

This “forced short-termism” reflects that immediate crises – geopolitical and economic – are overshadowing strategic investments that will be critical for 2030-2036.

AI: From #30 to #5 in a decade

The risk that experiences the biggest jump of all is the adverse impacts of Artificial Intelligence: from #30 on the two-year horizon to #5 on the 10-year outlook.

For capital goods manufacturers, it represents both an opportunity and a threat:

• The opportunity: process automation, “smart” products with predictive maintenance, and new markets for advanced machinery.
• The threat: growing competitive gap between those who adopt AI and those who do not, with the risk of falling behind international competitors.

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Economic risks: The coming storm

Economic risks show the largest increase of all categories:

• Economic recession: from rank #19 to #11 (↑8 positions).
• Inflation: from #29 to #21 (↑8 positions).
• Asset bubbles: #25 to #18 (↑7 positions).

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The Talent Factor: The Silent Risk

Although not always headline-grabbing, the shortage of skilled talent (#14 in the global ranking) is critical for industrial SMEs:

• Increasing difficulty in attracting digital profiles to traditional companies
• Baby boomer retirement with irreplaceable knowledge
• Fierce competition for engineers with AI, automation and sustainability skills

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The proposed solution is employer branding programs that position industrial SMEs as innovative and purposeful employers, not just traditional manufacturers.

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Against this backdrop, what can AMEC companies do?

The report’s conclusions suggest that the response is not defensive paralysis, but strategic action differentiated by time horizon.

Immediate Horizon (2026-2027): Tactical Shielding

• Geo-economic exposure mapping
• Financial hedging strategies
• Exploration of nearshoring
• Urgent ongoing training

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Medium Horizon (2028-2030): Selective Investment

• AI with criteria
• Inter-company collaboration
• Anticipating the return of climate regulation
• Intelligent market diversification

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Long Horizon (2030-2036): Strategic Transformation

• From products to solutions
• Circular business models
• Strategic alliances with tech companies

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Conclusion: Turbulence with windows of opportunity

The message of the Global Risks Report 2026 for Spanish industrial SMEs is clear but complex. The short-term perfect storm requires defensive risk management and liquidity preservation.

The key is not to paralyze strategic investment (digital, green, talent) despite short-term pressure. SMEs that only manage immediate crises without preparing for 2030-2036 will find unrecognizable markets and will have missed the transformation train.

The ability to manage complexity and ambiguity will be the defining competency of the next decade.

AMEC will continue to monitor these risks and translate global analysis into local strategies for our members.