The global commodities market is undergoing unprecedented disruption following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East in early 2026. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered the biggest supply shock to date. For Spanish industry, the impact goes beyond the increase in energy prices: it represents a fracture in the availability of strategic industrial and chemical inputs, in an environment of extreme volatility.

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1. Commodity Price Forecasts (2026-2027)

(f) prognosis

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2. Energy Inputs and Supply Chain Fracture

The conflict evidences a total fracture of the supply chain: it simultaneously affects energy (maritime fuel), logistics (transport routes) and industrial chemical inputs that travel along the same routes.

• Strait of Hormuz, multiple bottleneck: outlet for 35% of the world’s seaborne oil and 20% of the world’s LNG, as well as critical industrial chemical inputs.
• Sulfur’s critical link: One-third of the global sulfur trade depends on this region. Sulfur is essential for producing sulfuric acid, a key input in the leaching of copper and nickel ores. Any logistical disruption in the Strait therefore translates into shortages of the metals needed by the capital goods industry.
• Energy and metal processing: Metals such as aluminum suffer a double impact: the direct interruption of exports from the Gulf and the increase in energy costs for European smelters.
• Chain effect on freight rates: The rise in Brent – which reached $118/bbl in March – not only raises the plant’s energy bill, but also drives up transportation and freight costs for all imported and exported components.

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3. Demand Outlook: Safe Haven Sectors vs. Slowing Markets

The European manufacturer must reorient its commercial strategy towards resilient niches that compensate for macroeconomic weakness:

• Defense (NATO): extraordinary traction in heavy manufacturing and dual-use technology due to Alliance spending commitments.
• Data centers and AI: sustained demand for electrical, cooling and copper infrastructure.
• Grids and renewables: the urgency of energy sovereignty in Europe accelerates electrification as a refuge from fossil volatility.
• Weakness in emerging countries: growth revised downward from 4% to 3.6%, limiting exports to these markets outside strategic sectors.

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4. Risk Scenarios

Upward Risk

Prolongation or aggravation of the conflict beyond May 2026 (end of the acute phase in the baseline scenario).

• Energy prices: without reopening the Strait before 3Q 2026, Brent could be between $95 and $115/bbl. The high limit would be reached with severe damage to production infrastructure (-4% of global capacity).
• Systemic input fracture: a prolonged disruption of Gulf sulfur (one-third of world trade) would slow global copper and nickel mining.
• Cascade on fertilizer and food: urea could exceed 2022 records due to gas shortages and Gulf export restrictions, raising agricultural costs and aggravating food insecurity.

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Downside Risk

There are two main factors that could moderate prices more than expected:

• Rapid resolution and surplus: if tensions dissipate, the market would return to the projected 4 mb/d surplus by the end of 2025, with prices below projections in 2027.
• Weak growth: a global slowdown – especially in China due to the real estate crisis, or in intensive investment such as AI – would reduce demand for industrial metals.

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Strategic Recommendations

Security of supply has become a strategic priority:

• Energy diversification and autonomy: acceleration towards domestic renewables (solar, wind, hydro) to reduce geopolitical vulnerability, with renewed long-term interest in nuclear and small modular reactors.
• Logistics resilience: alternative routes – pipelines and processing plants – that avoid bottlenecks such as the Strait of Hormuz.
• Preventive inventories: medium-term accumulation as self-insurance against supply uncertainty.
• Financial instruments: hedging on energy and metals to manage extreme volatility.

The European industry operates in an environment where inflation in emerging and developing countries is projected at 5.1% by 2026, making imported components more expensive and weakening demand in key export markets. The industry’s profitability will depend on operational agility to pass on costs and financial strength to absorb the cash strains of a fragmented and costly supply chain.

In a context of persistent geopolitical uncertainty, adaptability is no longer a competitive advantage but a requirement for survival. Strategic success in 2026 will not be measured by sales volume, but by the ability to protect margins and sustain the operation in the face of a historic cost shock.