Merchandise trade will face a significant slowdown in 2026. The key points are detailed below:

Engines and specific sectors

• Electronics and Artificial Intelligence: These were the main drivers of trade in goods in 2025. Demand for semiconductors and digital components is expected to continue to support part of the trade flow in 2026.
• Automotive in decline: Trade in transportation equipment (including automobiles) stagnated in 2025.
• Pharmaceuticals and Chemicals: Recorded robust growth due to pre-emptive acquisitions in the face of possible new trade restrictions.

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Realignment of supply chains

• Partner diversification: US tariffs are forcing a realignment. ASEAN countries (such as Vietnam) and India are capturing the market share that China is losing in the electronics sector to the US.
• China’s resilience: China has managed to compensate for the fall in its exports to the US by significantly increasing its shipments to other regions, especially ASEAN and Africa.
• South-South trade: Trade between developing economies is gaining prominence and helping to reshape global trade dynamics in the face of geopolitical fragmentation.
• Logistics risks: Trade routes remain inefficient. The volume of cargo transiting the Suez Canal has yet to recover pre-2023 levels, forcing the use of longer and more costly routes that affect the final price of goods.

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Featured Economies

Within a global economic outlook that is expected to be subdued and below pre-pandemic averages, several countries and regions stand out for their dynamism and resilience in the run-up to 2026.

• India: The leader in solid growth. India is positioned as one of the economies with the best prospects. This momentum is supported by resilient private consumption and strong public investment, factors that sources point to as sufficient to offset the negative impact of trade tariffs imposed by the United States. In addition, recent fiscal reforms and monetary policy easing provide additional near-term support.
• Vietnam and Southeast Asia: The “bright spots”. In the region, Vietnam stands out as a “bright spot”. It maintains a solid trajectory thanks to infrastructure investment and government policy support. For its part, Indonesia maintains a stable course with growth, supported by strong domestic demand that helps cushion the fall in commodity prices.
• Least Developed Countries with stability. Countries such as Bangladesh, Ethiopia and Tanzania show strong performance. Their prospects for 2026 are underpinned by greater macroeconomic stability, robust agricultural production and favorable prices for certain commodities such as gold.