The evolution of this macroeconomic scenario is closely linked to international geopolitics. In the face of escalating tensions in the Middle East, the OECD has abandoned linear projections in favor of a binary forecast model in which the future of industrial costs, energy supply and global growth will depend critically on whether we face a transitory trade disruption or a severe and prolonged shock.

Forecasts for Spain: The Weakness of Foreign Demand

The growth of the Spanish economy is undergoing a change of balance where all the weight falls on the internal engine, while the foreign sector goes from being a driving force to a brake on the advance of Real GDP (which falls from 2.8% in 2025 to 2.2% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027).

• Euro Zone Tune-Up: The main cause of the slowdown in exports is the economic weakness of Spain’s main trading partners in the euro region. The lack of dynamism in key markets reduces demand for Spanish industrial and manufactured goods.
• Slowdown in Exports: Growth in the volume of exports of goods and services suffers a sharp slowdown from a rate of 3.6% in 2025 to a meager 0.6% in 2026, before partially recovering to 2.0% in 2027.
• Pressure from Imports: Unlike exports, imports maintain a higher growth rate due to firm domestic demand (consumption and investment). Although they fall from 6.2% in 2025, they will stand at 1.7% in 2026 and rebound to 2.2% in 2027.

As imports grow faster than exports over the forecast horizon, the contribution of the foreign sector to GDP growth will be negative, detracting from the dynamism of overall activity.

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Global Risk Scenario Analysis

Due to heightened tensions in the Middle East and the risk to energy supply chains, the OECD has replaced its traditional projections with a binary model of alternative trajectories for the next 18 months.

Scenario A: Time Limited Disruption (Centerline)

This is the base scenario underpinning Spain’s growth forecasts (2.2% in 2026).

• Premise: Assumes that the disruptions in energy supply and the blockage of Persian Gulf trade routes begin to resolve gradually from the third quarter of 2026.
• Energy prices: International quotations are moderating in line with futures markets. The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil will average USD 92 in 2026 and fall to USD 80 in 2027. Natural gas prices will follow a similar normalization path.

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Scenario B: Prolonged Disruption

This scenario would be triggered if the conflict in the Middle East and the total or partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz were to continue uninterrupted throughout the year 2027. The consequences for the global and European economy would be critical:

• Commodity Shock: International oil, natural gas and fertilizer prices would soar, averaging 50% above the levels projected in the central scenario.
• Supply and Efficiency Crisis: The increase in prices would force the application of forced energy rationing measures in the business fabric, causing bottlenecks and drastic drops in the technical efficiency of industrial processes at a global level.
• Financial Tightening and Confidence: Financial markets would react with extreme volatility, triggering a 15% global drop in equity markets. Tighter credit conditions, coupled with plummeting consumer confidence, would freeze investment and spending decisions.
• Impact on Growth: This energy and financial crisis scenario would subtract 0.7 percentage points from global GDP in 2026 and a massive 1.3 points in 2027. The report warns that this trajectory would push several advanced economies straight into recession and cause a sharp spike in global inflation.