{"id":43041,"date":"2025-11-08T13:42:09","date_gmt":"2025-11-08T12:42:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.amec.es\/commodity-market-outlook-2025-2026\/"},"modified":"2025-11-08T13:43:37","modified_gmt":"2025-11-08T12:43:37","slug":"commodity-market-outlook-2025-2026","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/amec.es\/en\/commodity-market-outlook-2025-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Commodity market outlook 2025-2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-page\" data-elementor-id=\"43041\" class=\"elementor elementor-43041 elementor-43036\" data-elementor-post-type=\"page\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-920481b elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"920481b\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;gradient&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-20e7924c\" data-id=\"20e7924c\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-551db4e0 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"551db4e0\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><a href=\"https:\/\/amec.es\/en\/category\/exclusive-alerts-and-trends\/\" rel=\"tag\">Exclusive alerts and trends<\/a><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-620e4e68 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"620e4e68\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6b8cbe9b elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"6b8cbe9b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-55552ca elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"55552ca\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-306952dd\" data-id=\"306952dd\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-59bc3e34 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"59bc3e34\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Commodity market outlook 2025-2026<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6ffb43dd elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"6ffb43dd\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3270971c elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"3270971c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t8 de November de 2025\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7e0e58d7 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"7e0e58d7\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>The World Bank forecasts a 7% drop in commodity prices in both 2025 and 2026. Weak global economic activity, oversupply of oil and trade tensions explain this trend. <\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-383b4866 elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"383b4866\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-619aa724 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"619aa724\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>The following are selected highlights from the World Bank&#8217;s October 2025 Commodity Markets Outlook.<\/p><h5><strong><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\">_<\/span><br>GLOBAL FORECASTS<\/strong><\/h5><p>The overall commodity index will fall <strong>7.4% in 2025<\/strong> and another <strong>6.8% in 2026<\/strong>, after peaking in 2022. However, prices will remain 14% above pre-pandemic 2019 levels. <\/p><p>The drop is led by <strong>energy<\/strong> (-12.4% in 2025 and -10.2% in 2026), while <strong>non-energy<\/strong> products will show more modest changes (+1.8% in 2025 and -1.6% in 2026).<\/p><h5><strong><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\">_<\/span><br>EXPLANATORY FACTORS FOR THE DOWNWARD FORECASTS<\/strong><\/h5><ul><li><strong>Weak economic activity:<\/strong> Global growth remains below potential, especially in China.<\/li><li><strong>Trade tensions:<\/strong> U.S. tariffs of 50% on semi-finished copper products and trade restrictions on soybeans are disrupting global trade flows.<\/li><li><strong>Political uncertainty:<\/strong> The high level of uncertainty in economic policy is holding back investment and consumption of durable goods.<\/li><li><strong>Depreciation of the dollar:<\/strong> Without this factor, the fall in dollar prices would have been even greater.<\/li><\/ul><ul><li><strong>Structural oversupply of oil.<\/strong>  Global supply exceeds demand at levels not seen since 2020.<\/li><li><strong>Slowdown in the Chinese real estate sector<\/strong>, which is weighing on demand, although investments in renewable energies and electric vehicles provide partial support.<\/li><li><strong>Abundant supply conditions for key agricultural crops<\/strong>, with ample global inventories.<\/li><\/ul><h5><strong><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\">_<\/span><br>AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS AND FOOD<\/strong><\/h5><p>The agricultural index will remain practically <strong>stable in 2025<\/strong> (+0.2%) and will fall slightly in <strong>2026<\/strong> (-2.2%).<\/p><p><strong>Food:<\/strong> 6.1% decline in 2025, with stability in 2026 (-0.3%). The three subcomponents will show narrow ranges: <\/p><ul><li><strong>Grains:<\/strong> Sharp drop of 10.8% in 2025 due to abundant supply (especially rice, wheat and corn), stabilization in 2026.<\/li><li><strong>Oils and meals:<\/strong> 3% decrease in 2025, practically flat in 2026.<\/li><\/ul><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\">_<\/span><br>Beverages:<\/strong> After the strong rebound of 17.8% in 2025 (driven by weather issues in <strong>coffee and cocoa<\/strong>), a correction of 7.2% is expected in 2026 as supply conditions improve.<\/p><h5><strong><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\">_<\/span><br>METALS AND MINERALS (BASE)<\/strong><\/h5><p>The base metals index will rise by <strong>4.9% in 2025<\/strong> and just <strong>0.9% in 2026<\/strong>, reflecting contrasting forces:<\/p><ul><li><strong>Copper:<\/strong> Will reach nominal record highs in 2026. Anticipated shipments to the United States before the August tariffs raised inventories and demand for energy transition supports prices. <\/li><li><strong>Aluminum:<\/strong> Moderate increase, driven by EU restrictions on Russian aluminum and infrastructure demand.<\/li><li><strong>Tin:<\/strong> Will remain at historic highs due to its critical role in clean technologies and Myanmar&#8217;s export restrictions.<\/li><li><strong>Iron ore:<\/strong> The only exception with declines due to the prolonged crisis in the Chinese real estate sector.<\/li><\/ul><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\">_<\/span><br>Metals market factors<\/strong><\/p><ul><li><strong>Demand for energy transition:<\/strong> Investments in renewables, electric vehicles and electric infrastructure support prices.<\/li><li><strong>Trade restrictions:<\/strong> U.S. tariffs and export bans (Indonesia on copper and nickel) are fragmenting markets.<\/li><li><strong>Weak industrial activity:<\/strong> Global political uncertainty continues to dampen investment in equipment and construction.<\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-4338f58d elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"4338f58d\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-3b76ab88\" data-id=\"3b76ab88\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-13b1b93c elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"13b1b93c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2ebade21 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"2ebade21\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h5 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Resources<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-536a883e elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"536a883e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>World Bank Group (2025). <em>Commodity Markets Outlook: October 2025.<\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/research\/commodity-markets\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/research\/commodity-markets<\/a> <\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1c93b416 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"1c93b416\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The World Bank forecasts a 7% drop in commodity prices in both 2025 and 2026. Weak global economic activity, oversupply of oil and trade tensions explain this trend. The following are selected highlights from the World Bank&#8217;s October 2025 Commodity Markets Outlook. _GLOBAL FORECASTS The overall commodity index will fall 7.4% in 2025 and another [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"elementor_canvas","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[355],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43041","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry","category-exclusive-alerts-and-trends"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Commodity market outlook 2025-2026 | amec Positive Industry<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/amec.es\/en\/commodity-market-outlook-2025-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Commodity market outlook 2025-2026 | amec Positive Industry\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The World Bank forecasts a 7% drop in commodity prices in both 2025 and 2026. Weak global economic activity, oversupply of oil and trade tensions explain this trend. 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Weak global economic activity, oversupply of oil and trade tensions explain this trend. 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