{"id":43462,"date":"2025-11-13T11:38:22","date_gmt":"2025-11-13T10:38:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/amec.es\/global-economic-and-trade-outlook-november-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-11-13T11:46:40","modified_gmt":"2025-11-13T10:46:40","slug":"global-economic-and-trade-outlook-november-2025","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/amec.es\/en\/global-economic-and-trade-outlook-november-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Global economic and trade outlook (November 2025)"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Exclusive alerts and trends<\/a><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Global economic and trade outlook (November 2025)<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The general fall in commodity prices <\/span>eases industrial costs, but reflects<\/span>but reflects weaker <\/span>weaker global demand<\/span>. At the same time, <\/span>investment in strategic technologies is reshaping trade flows and value chains<\/span> is reshaping trade flows and value chains, marking a structural change in the global economy.<\/span><\/span> <\/span><\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Overall performance: stable growth, but no momentum<\/span><\/b> <\/span><\/h5>

The main international organizations maintain their global growth forecasts for 2025 at around 3%. <\/span>global growth forecasts for 2025 of around 3%, with a<\/span><\/b>with a slight <\/span>slight slowdown forecast for 2026 (2.9% according to the OECD and 2.4% according to the Economist Intelligence Unit).<\/span> (2.9% according to the OECD and 2.4% according to the Economist Intelligence Unit).<\/span> <\/span><\/p>

Overall manufacturing activity improves modestly. The <\/span>World manufacturing PMI<\/span><\/b> has reached its highest level in more than three years<\/span><\/b>driven by new orders and dynamism in India, Thailand and Vietnam. <\/span>India, Thailand and Vietnam<\/span><\/b>which continue to lead industrial expansion in Asia.<\/span> <\/span><\/p>

On the other hand, the <\/span>euro zone<\/span><\/b> continues to lack clear momentum. Industrial production shows <\/span>signs of stabilization<\/span><\/b>but the weakness of the <\/span>weakness of the French market<\/span><\/b> could dampen demand in its main partners. At <\/span>Spain<\/span><\/b>the economy maintains a sustained <\/span>sustained growth<\/span><\/b> thanks to domestic demand.<\/span> <\/span><\/p>

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World trade: divergence between value and volume<\/span><\/b> <\/span><\/h5>

According to <\/span>UNCTAD<\/span><\/b>the <\/span>total value of world trade<\/span><\/b> grew <\/span><\/b>on <\/span>2.5% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter of 2025 and will reach<\/span><\/b> and will reach <\/span>annual growth of close to 5%.<\/span><\/b> <\/span> <\/span><\/p>

However, <\/span>This increase, however, mainly reflects the rise in commodity prices.<\/span><\/b>. The <\/span>WTO, <\/span>in its October update, forecasts that world merchandise <\/span>world merchandise trade will grow by 2.4% in volume terms by 2025<\/span><\/b>and only<\/span> 0.5% in 2026, as the effects of anticipated inventory buildup in the face of new U.S. tariffs normalize.<\/span> <\/span><\/p>

This growth is being driven by <\/span>goods related to artificial intelligence<\/span><\/b>. Although they represent only <\/span>15% of world trade<\/span><\/b>accounted for 43% of <\/span>43% of the growth in the first half of 2025.<\/span><\/b>.<\/span> <\/span><\/p>

This reconfiguration is evidence of a profound change in business patterns, increasingly linked to <\/span>strategic technologies<\/span><\/b> technologies and less to <\/span>labor costs or geographic proximity<\/span><\/b>.<\/span> <\/span><\/p>

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The global investment paradox: fewer projects, more capital<\/span><\/b> <\/span><\/h5>

UNCTAD’s latest <\/span>UNCTAD’s latest Global Investment<\/span><\/b> shows a contradictory scenario. While the <\/span>foreign direct investment fell 3% year-on-year<\/span><\/b> in the first half of 2025, <\/span>the total value of new investment grew 7% year-on-year in the first half of 2025.<\/span><\/b>driven by megaprojects in semiconductors <\/span>megaprojects in semiconductors, data centers and AI technologies.<\/span><\/b>. <\/span> <\/span><\/p>

United States<\/span><\/b> stands out as the main investment destination (+5% in FDI), with more than half of the capital concentrated in IA. At <\/span>Europa<\/span><\/b>investment fell by 25% in terms of the number of projects, but the total value increased by 48%, with France as the main beneficiary. At <\/span>Asia<\/span><\/b>In Asia, FDI rose 7%, but the value of industrial projects fell 37%.<\/span> <\/span><\/p>

The result is a concentration <\/span>concentration of global capital in high-return technology sectors, while traditional<\/span><\/b> technology sectors, while traditional manufacturing sectors are losing traction.<\/span> <\/span><\/p>

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Commodities: falling prices and structural volatility<\/span><\/b> <\/span><\/h5>

Both the <\/span>World Bank<\/span><\/b> (<\/span>Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2025<\/span><\/i>) as <\/span>McKinsey<\/span><\/b> (<\/span>Global Materials Perspective 2025<\/span><\/i>) agree that commodity prices are going through a period of high volatility. <\/span>cyclical correction phase<\/span><\/b>with an expected drop of <\/span>7% in 2025<\/span><\/b> and of the <\/span>6.8% in 2026<\/span><\/b>.<\/span> <\/span><\/p>

According to the World Bank, the downturn is mainly due to weak global economic activity. <\/span>weak global economic activity<\/span><\/b> (particularly in China) and the oversupply of oil <\/span>oil oversupply, which is dragging down the commodity index as a whole.<\/span><\/b>which is dragging down the commodity index as a whole. <\/span> <\/span><\/p>

McKinsey qualifies that, beyond this cyclical moderation, structural volatility persists. <\/span>structural volatility<\/span><\/b> volatility stemming from the <\/span>geographic concentration of supply<\/span><\/b>the <\/span>nationalization of resources<\/span><\/b> and the <\/span>and the advance of protectionism, factors that limit market<\/span><\/b>These factors limit market predictability and reinforce the fragmentation of world trade in raw materials.<\/span> <\/span><\/p>

By commodity, the situation is as follows:<\/span> <\/span><\/p>