{"id":43960,"date":"2025-11-19T11:37:01","date_gmt":"2025-11-19T10:37:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/amec.es\/assessment-and-outlook-for-sub-saharan-africa\/"},"modified":"2025-11-20T12:16:49","modified_gmt":"2025-11-20T11:16:49","slug":"assessment-and-outlook-for-sub-saharan-africa","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/amec.es\/en\/assessment-and-outlook-for-sub-saharan-africa\/","title":{"rendered":"Assessment and outlook for sub-Saharan Africa"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-page\" data-elementor-id=\"43960\" class=\"elementor elementor-43960 elementor-43872\" data-elementor-post-type=\"page\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-281b0b7c elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"281b0b7c\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;gradient&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-1faf3c76\" data-id=\"1faf3c76\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2ed3f134 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"2ed3f134\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><a href=\"https:\/\/amec.es\/en\/category\/exclusive-alerts-and-trends\/\" rel=\"tag\">Exclusive alerts and trends<\/a><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3e631d43 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"3e631d43\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-461ef3f9 elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"461ef3f9\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-2816a007 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"2816a007\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-5b4b5645\" data-id=\"5b4b5645\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-589d5584 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"589d5584\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Assessment and outlook for sub-Saharan Africa<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2d29b2d7 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"2d29b2d7\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3699b62f elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"3699b62f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t19 de November de 2025\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1451375b elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"1451375b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>Sub-Saharan Africa&#8217;s economic outlook points to moderate expansion, driven by non-resource-dependent countries and progress in stabilization and tax reforms. Even so, relevant vulnerabilities remain, ranging from high inflation in several economies to the increasing fragility of some key markets. <\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7b0eceec elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"7b0eceec\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2d40a365 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"2d40a365\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>We have analyzed the October 2025 edition of the IMF&#8217;s <em>Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa<\/em> to provide an overview of the most relevant countries in the region. Based on this source, comparisons and trends are presented to identify both the progress made in stabilization and reforms and the main economic and fiscal vulnerabilities that have conditioned their recent evolution. <\/p><h5><strong><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\">_<\/span><br>Comparative Table: Stability and Growth Prospects<\/strong><\/h5><p>The following table compares countries that stand out specifically for their resilience, high growth projections, or their central role in stabilization efforts and regional vulnerabilities.<\/p><p><iframe id=\"datawrapper-chart-GxyRP\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" title=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/GxyRP\/2\/\" height=\"1228\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" aria-label=\"Tabla\" data-external=\"1\"><\/iframe><script type=\"text\/javascript\">window.addEventListener(\"message\",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";r.style.height=d}}});<\/script><\/p><h5><strong><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\">_<\/span><br>Stability and Outlook Highlights<\/strong><\/h5><p><strong>Reduced Dependence on Commodities and Growth<\/strong><\/p><p>The countries with the <strong>best growth prospects<\/strong> are <strong>Ethiopia, Rwanda, Benin, C\u00f4te d&#8217;Ivoire and Uganda<\/strong>. These are all classified as non-resource intensive countries. <\/p><p><strong>Political Stability and Vulnerability<\/strong><\/p><ul><li>Despite growth, political fragility persists. <strong>Ethiopia<\/strong> and <strong>Nigeria<\/strong> are classified in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations.<\/li><li>Low-income and fragile countries are disproportionately exposed to <strong>cuts in Official Development Assistance<\/strong>, which is projected to decline by 16% to 28% by 2025. <strong>Ethiopia<\/strong> is among the top ten countries where ODA cuts could exceed 10% of government revenues.<\/li><\/ul><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\">_<\/span><br>Macroeconomic Stabilization and Financial Support<\/strong><\/p><ul><li>The growth outlook is underpinned by continued progress toward <strong>macroeconomic stabilization <\/strong>and reform efforts in key economies, including <strong>Ethiopia and Nigeria<\/strong>.<\/li><li><strong>External borrowing<\/strong> conditions remain tight, but have improved since April 2025, benefiting countries with stronger macroeconomic fundamentals and greater policy credibility. <strong>Kenya<\/strong> accessed the Eurobond market by raising $1.5 billion in October 2025.<\/li><li>Several countries are prioritizing <strong>revenue mobilization<\/strong>. <strong>Ghana<\/strong> has implemented an electronic VAT (e-VAT) \/ e-invoicing pilot with large taxpayers, which has resulted in revenue increases. <strong>Nigeria<\/strong> has also introduced tax administration reforms through digitization. <strong>Benin<\/strong> stands out for its progress in debt management.<\/li><\/ul><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\">_<\/span><br>Key Risks: Debt and Inflation<\/strong><\/p><p>Monetary, financial, external and fiscal vulnerabilities are significant in much of the region, complicating the response to future shocks.<\/p><ul><li>The <strong>cost of debt service<\/strong> has risen steadily, crowding out priority development spending, as seen in <strong>Kenya and Nigeria<\/strong>. For its part, <strong>South Africa<\/strong> faces refinancing risks, with significant debt maturities in 2025-2026. <\/li><li>Although <strong>median inflation<\/strong> has declined, it is projected to remain in double digits in about one-fifth of the region. <strong>Nigeria<\/strong>, <strong>Ghana<\/strong> and <strong>Ethiopia<\/strong> are in this group. This high inflation, combined with high interest-to-income ratios, creates a tension between fiscal and monetary policy. <\/li><\/ul><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\"><br>Stability and good prospects are concentrated in high-growth countries that are not dependent on volatile resources.<\/span> However, key economies such as Nigeria, Ethiopia and Ghana must simultaneously cope with high inflation rates and the urgency of their stabilization efforts, while South Africa is characterized by anemic economic growth and heavy debt maturities.<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-58212862 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"58212862\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-39058520\" data-id=\"39058520\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-14bdb286 elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"14bdb286\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6c46d41e elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"6c46d41e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h5 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Resources<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a5898f3 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"a5898f3\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>International Monetary Fund. <em data-start=\"79\" data-end=\"141\">Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa &#8211; October 2025<\/em>.<\/p><p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/publications\/reo\/ssa\/issues\/2025\/10\/16\/regional-economic-outlook-for-sub-saharan-africa-october-2025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/publications\/reo\/ssa\/issues\/2025\/10\/16\/regional-economic-outlook-for-sub-saharan-africa-october-2025<\/a><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7d00da89 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"7d00da89\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sub-Saharan Africa&#8217;s economic outlook points to moderate expansion, driven by non-resource-dependent countries and progress in stabilization and tax reforms. Even so, relevant vulnerabilities remain, ranging from high inflation in several economies to the increasing fragility of some key markets. We have analyzed the October 2025 edition of the IMF&#8217;s Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"elementor_canvas","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[355],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43960","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry","category-exclusive-alerts-and-trends"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Assessment and outlook for sub-Saharan Africa | amec Positive Industry<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/amec.es\/en\/assessment-and-outlook-for-sub-saharan-africa\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Assessment and outlook for sub-Saharan Africa | amec Positive Industry\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Sub-Saharan Africa&#8217;s economic outlook points to moderate expansion, driven by non-resource-dependent countries and progress in stabilization and tax reforms. 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