{"id":51014,"date":"2026-03-05T17:01:32","date_gmt":"2026-03-05T16:01:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/amec.es\/global-economic-and-trade-outlook-march-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-03-05T17:05:21","modified_gmt":"2026-03-05T16:05:21","slug":"global-economic-and-trade-outlook-march-2026","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/amec.es\/en\/global-economic-and-trade-outlook-march-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Global economic and trade outlook (March 2026)"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-page\" data-elementor-id=\"51014\" class=\"elementor elementor-51014 elementor-51007\" data-elementor-post-type=\"page\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-5c107c2f elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"5c107c2f\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;gradient&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-53a516cf\" data-id=\"53a516cf\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5acbe607 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"5acbe607\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><a href=\"https:\/\/amec.es\/en\/category\/exclusive-alerts-and-trends\/\" rel=\"tag\">Exclusive alerts and trends<\/a><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7f35c444 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"7f35c444\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-78d8d13f elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"78d8d13f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-177025c4 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"177025c4\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-5edc6320\" data-id=\"5edc6320\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-778436ec elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"778436ec\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Global economic and trade outlook (March 2026)<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-42360e55 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"42360e55\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-650767a4 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"650767a4\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t5 de March de 2026\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-57994ffe elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"57994ffe\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>The manufacturing sector is in a state of robust but fragile global recovery, caught between strong growth momentum and a new storm of inflationary pressures and geopolitical risks.<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-110db19 elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"110db19\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-22d8af0d elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"22d8af0d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Although factories are producing more and orders are accumulating, the sector is facing a <strong>&#8220;pincer effect&#8221;<\/strong>: on the one hand, collapsed international logistics and soaring energy costs; and on the other, the difficulty of passing on these increases in full to customers who are already showing signs of caution.<\/p><h5><strong>Keys of the month<\/strong><\/h5><p><strong>Growth at multi-year highs:<\/strong> Globally, the sector is showing its strongest dynamism since late 2021, with the PMI index reaching its highest level in 44 months (51.9). Business optimism has also climbed to levels not seen in nearly two years, driven by an increase in new orders and a stabilization of international trade for the first time since March 2025. <\/p><p><strong>The return of inflationary pressure:<\/strong> Current growth is being &#8220;overshadowed&#8221; by an accelerating rise in production costs. Input inflation has reached rates not seen since late 2022, driven especially by shortages in <strong>semiconductors<\/strong> (priced 10.8 times above their historical trend) and base metals. <\/p><p><strong>Critical threat from geopolitical conflict:<\/strong> The biggest factor of uncertainty is the war with Iran. Although the February data shows optimism, much of the survey was conducted before the full escalation of the conflict. The impact is already tangible with <strong>oil up a third<\/strong> and <strong>natural gas up 50%<\/strong>, coupled with 10% of the world&#8217;s container fleet being stranded in the Persian Gulf.  <\/p><h5><strong><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\">_<\/span><br>The current context in detail<\/strong><\/h5><p><strong>Manufacturing Production<\/strong><\/p><p>The global manufacturing industry showed its strongest dynamism in almost four years in February, with the <strong>PMI<\/strong> index <strong>reaching 51.9 points<\/strong>, its highest level in 44 months.<\/p><ul><li><strong>Globally:<\/strong> Production growth was the fastest since the end of 2021. Momentum came mainly from <strong>Asia<\/strong> (with India, Vietnam and Taiwan leading the way) and <strong>Europe<\/strong>, while North America experienced a slowdown. <\/li><li><strong>In the Eurozone:<\/strong> The sector recorded its best month in almost four years. The recovery was widespread, with <strong>six of the eight countries analyzed in expansion territory<\/strong>. Germany stood out by returning to growth after three and a half years of declines.  <\/li><li><strong>In Spain:<\/strong> Contrary to the general trend, Spanish production remained <strong>stagnant (PMI of 50)<\/strong>. The industrial sector in Spain has lost dynamism this winter, weighed down by weak demand and increasing cost pressures. <\/li><\/ul><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\">_<\/span><br>Foreign Trade<\/strong><\/p><p>International trade showed signs of recovery, although important regional obstacles persist.<\/p><ul><li><strong>Global Trend:<\/strong> World export volume grew for the first time since March 2025, driven by China, Japan and the United Kingdom.<\/li><li><strong>Regional Performance:<\/strong> Both the Eurozone and the United States recorded declines in new export orders. In Spain, foreign sales continue to be a drag, affected by <strong>U.S. tariffs<\/strong> and the strength of the euro, although the pace of decline moderated slightly in February. <\/li><\/ul><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\">_<\/span><br>Commodity and Input Prices<\/strong><\/p><p>Production cost inflation has accelerated sharply, driven by supply shortages and geopolitical tensions.<\/p><ul><li><strong>Cost inflation:<\/strong> Global input prices increased at the fastest pace since November 2022.<\/li><li><strong>Semiconductors and Electronics:<\/strong> Semiconductors recorded the highest price pressures since 2022, at <strong>10.8 times their historical trend<\/strong>. Electrical items also reached three-year highs in their rates of price increases. <\/li><li><strong>Metals:<\/strong> Above-average price increases were reported for <strong>aluminum and copper<\/strong>, as well as iron and steel.<\/li><li><strong>Energy:<\/strong> Due to the conflict in the Middle East, <strong>oil<\/strong> prices <strong>have risen by a third<\/strong> since the beginning of the year, while liquefied natural gas has increased in price by 50%.<\/li><\/ul><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\">_<\/span><br>Transportation &amp; Supply Chains<\/strong><\/p><p>Transportation has become the main bottleneck in the global industry due to war conflicts.<\/p><ul><li><strong>Freight capacity:<\/strong> Reports of freight shortages are <strong>almost four times more frequent<\/strong> than usual.<\/li><li><strong>Logistical disruptions:<\/strong> Following the outbreak of hostilities with Iran, an estimated <strong>10% of the world&#8217;s container fleet<\/strong> was stranded or held up in the vicinity of the Persian Gulf.<\/li><li><strong>Delivery times:<\/strong> Waiting times to receive supplies lengthened for the twenty-first consecutive month worldwide. In Europe, delivery delays have reached levels not seen since 2022. <\/li><\/ul><p> <\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-222b81d3 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"222b81d3\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-7ea68c57\" data-id=\"7ea68c57\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-63eca967 elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"63eca967\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2343ec38 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"2343ec38\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h5 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">More information at CoLAB<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-53c95cd7 e-grid e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"53c95cd7\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element 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https:\/\/amec.es\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Banner-Nota-commodities-1.png 1280w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3e76dd6d elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"3e76dd6d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/amec.es\/comunidad\/colab\/\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"295\" src=\"https:\/\/amec.es\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Banner-Indicadores-adelantados-amec-1024x377.png\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-45857\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/amec.es\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Banner-Indicadores-adelantados-amec-1024x377.png 1024w, 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class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-129d0d06\" data-id=\"129d0d06\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-672433f9 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"672433f9\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Contact us for more information! <\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3da7b8c elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"3da7b8c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div 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data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"380\" height=\"250\" src=\"https:\/\/amec.es\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/susana-gonzalez-3-r-2-redim-prop66-w380-h250.jpg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-46386\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/amec.es\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/susana-gonzalez-3-r-2-redim-prop66-w380-h250.jpg 380w, https:\/\/amec.es\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/susana-gonzalez-3-r-2-redim-prop66-w380-h250-300x197.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 380px) 100vw, 380px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-622b92fa\" data-id=\"622b92fa\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap 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data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.accio.gencat.cat\/ca\/accio\/processos-acreditacio\/agents-suport-internacionalitzacio\/\"><span data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\">ACCI\u00d3 accredited agent<\/span><\/a><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-233eb168 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"233eb168\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The manufacturing sector is in a state of robust but fragile global recovery, caught between strong growth momentum and a new storm of inflationary pressures and geopolitical risks. Although factories are producing more and orders are accumulating, the sector is facing a &#8220;pincer effect&#8221;: on the one hand, collapsed international logistics and soaring energy costs; [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"elementor_canvas","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[355],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51014","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry","category-exclusive-alerts-and-trends"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Global economic and trade outlook (March 2026) | amec Positive Industry<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/amec.es\/en\/global-economic-and-trade-outlook-march-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Global economic and trade outlook (March 2026) | amec Positive Industry\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The manufacturing sector is in a state of robust but fragile global recovery, caught between strong growth momentum and a new storm of inflationary pressures and geopolitical risks. 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