{"id":55330,"date":"2026-05-06T11:52:30","date_gmt":"2026-05-06T09:52:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/amec.es\/impact-of-the-2026-commodity-scenario\/"},"modified":"2026-05-06T12:05:04","modified_gmt":"2026-05-06T10:05:04","slug":"impact-of-the-2026-commodity-scenario","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/amec.es\/en\/impact-of-the-2026-commodity-scenario\/","title":{"rendered":"Impact of the 2026 commodity scenario"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Exclusive alerts and trends<\/a><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Impact of the 2026 commodity scenario<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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World Bank forecasts point to a historic shock in commodity markets following the Middle East conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz: +16% in the general price index this year, with peaks in energy, fertilizers and metals, and severe risks for food security and emerging markets if the disruptions are prolonged.<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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The global commodities market is undergoing unprecedented disruption following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East in early 2026. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered the biggest supply shock to date. For Spanish industry, the impact goes beyond the increase in energy prices: it represents a fracture in the availability of strategic industrial and chemical inputs, in an environment of extreme volatility. <\/p>

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1. Commodity Price Forecasts (2026-2027)<\/strong><\/h5>
Category \/ Raw Material<\/th>Price 2026 (f)<\/th>Price 2027 (f)<\/th>% Change 2026<\/th>% Change 2027<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
TOTAL INDEX<\/td>113,7<\/td>99,8<\/td>+15,5%<\/td>-12,3%<\/td><\/tr>
ENERGY<\/td>111,3<\/td>92,1<\/td>+23,6%<\/td>-17,2%<\/td><\/tr>
Crude oil (Brent)<\/td>86,0<\/td>70,0<\/td>+24,6%<\/td>-18,6%<\/td><\/tr>
Natural Gas (Europe)<\/td>15,0<\/td>12,0<\/td>+25,4%<\/td>-20,0%<\/td><\/tr>
Coal (Australia)<\/td>130,0<\/td>115,0<\/td>+19,9%<\/td>-11,5%<\/td><\/tr>
METALS AND MINERALS<\/td>130,8<\/td>122,3<\/td>+16,6%<\/td>-6,5%<\/td><\/tr>
Aluminum<\/td>3.200<\/td>3.000<\/td>+21,6%<\/td>-6,3%<\/td><\/tr>
Copper<\/td>12.000<\/td>11.000<\/td>+20,6%<\/td>-8,3%<\/td><\/tr>
Tin<\/td>41.000<\/td>37.000<\/td>+20,4%<\/td>-9,8%<\/td><\/tr>
Nickel<\/td>17.000<\/td>17.500<\/td>+12,1%<\/td>+2,9%<\/td><\/tr>
Iron Ore<\/td>97,0<\/td>95,0<\/td>-3,2%<\/td>-2,1%<\/td><\/tr>
PRECIOUS METALS<\/td>368,3<\/td>337,7<\/td>+42,4%<\/td>-8,3%<\/td><\/tr>
Gold<\/td>4.700<\/td>4.300<\/td>+36,6%<\/td>-8,5%<\/td><\/tr>
Silver<\/td>70,0<\/td>65,0<\/td>+75,9%<\/td>-7,1%<\/td><\/tr>
Platinum<\/td>1.950<\/td>1.700<\/td>+52,5%<\/td>-12,8%<\/td><\/tr>
FERTILIZERS<\/td>181,3<\/td>152,1<\/td>+30,7%<\/td>-16,1%<\/td><\/tr>
Urea (E, Europe)<\/td>675<\/td>500<\/td>+59,7%<\/td>-25,9%<\/td><\/tr>
AGRICULTURE<\/td>109,3<\/td>110,0<\/td>-5,6%<\/td>+0,6%<\/td><\/tr>
Food Index<\/td>111,9<\/td>113,3<\/td>+2,4%<\/td>+1,3%<\/td><\/tr>
Beverages<\/td>144,8<\/td>147,8<\/td>-30,1%<\/td>+2,1%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>

(f) prognosis<\/em><\/p>

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2. Energy Inputs and Supply Chain Fracture<\/strong><\/h5>

The conflict evidences a total fracture of the supply chain: it simultaneously affects energy (maritime fuel), logistics (transport routes) and industrial chemical inputs that travel along the same routes.<\/p>