Commodity and Transportation Index Analysis (May 2026)
The May 2026 update of the commodities and logistics note shows a generalized revival of cost pressures and renewed tension in supply chains.
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The technology sector does not reach its peak
The Semiconductor Index (SOX) continues its vertical upward trajectory, reaching levels close to 12,000 points in May 2026. This confirms that the demand for chips remains massive and leads the growth of industrial markets. Generalized rise in metals and industrial inputs A coordinated upward trend is observed in most basic materials:- Metals: Aluminum, copper and steel (HRC) show steep rises at the start of 2026. Nickel, which was at low levels, has experienced a strong recent rebound.
- Plastics: This is one of the most notable changes. After closing 2025 at lows, polymer prices in Europe have undergone a vertical and violent rebound in the last few months of the series.
- Agricultural commodities: Products such as wool and rubber are also showing clear upward trends so far this year.
_ Energy and Futures Markets
- Crude Oil: Brent Crude has broken its previous stability, showing a notable increase in price that places it above 87 USD in May 2026.
- Electricity in Spain: Although there was a one-off daily drop (-30.29% as of May 13), the annual comparison is still very high, with an increase of 57.97%.
- Dow Jones Commodity Index: Reflects this general rise in costs with a sustained upward trend throughout the first four months of 2026.
_ Maritime transportation on the rise
- The Baltic Exchange Dry Index, which measures solid bulk shipping and is a leading indicator of activity, has soared in 2026, reaching 063 points in May. For its part, container freight (WCI) shows an annual increase of 10% in its composite index.
- The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index shows a further significant spike by April 2026. This suggests that new bottlenecks or disruptions have emerged that are affecting global logistics.
_ Inflation rebound (Spain and Eurozone)
Data for March 2026 confirm that inflation has accelerated again:- In Spain: Overall CPI has risen to 3.4% (from 2.9% in December). More worrying is the Industrial Price Index (IPRI), which has moved from negative rates at the end of 2025 to a positive 3.4% in March, driven by the end of the energy truce.
- In the Eurozone: Inflation also showed a slight rebound after months of decline, standing at 3%.
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Global economic and trade outlook (May 2026)
Two months after the start of the conflict in the Persian Gulf, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to dominate the global economic environment. Manufacturing PMIs are rebounding, but preemptive stockpiling artificially inflates activity as costs hit multi-year highs. The immediate risk is concentrated on three fronts: cost inflation, logistical disruptions and uncertain final demand.
Impact of the 2026 commodity scenario
World Bank forecasts point to a historic shock in commodity markets following the Middle East conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz: +16% in the general price index this year, with peaks in energy, fertilizers and metals, and severe risks for food security and emerging markets if the disruptions are prolonged.
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