Overall performance: stable growth, but no momentum

The main international organizations maintain their global growth forecasts for 2025 at around 3%. global growth forecasts for 2025 of around 3%, with awith a slight slight slowdown forecast for 2026 (2.9% according to the OECD and 2.4% according to the Economist Intelligence Unit). (2.9% according to the OECD and 2.4% according to the Economist Intelligence Unit).

Overall manufacturing activity improves modestly. The World manufacturing PMI has reached its highest level in more than three yearsdriven by new orders and dynamism in India, Thailand and Vietnam. India, Thailand and Vietnamwhich continue to lead industrial expansion in Asia.

On the other hand, the euro zone continues to lack clear momentum. Industrial production shows signs of stabilizationbut the weakness of the weakness of the French market could dampen demand in its main partners. At Spainthe economy maintains a sustained sustained growth thanks to domestic demand.

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World trade: divergence between value and volume

According to UNCTADthe total value of world trade grew on 2.5% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter of 2025 and will reach and will reach annual growth of close to 5%.

However, This increase, however, mainly reflects the rise in commodity prices.. The WTO, in its October update, forecasts that world merchandise world merchandise trade will grow by 2.4% in volume terms by 2025and only 0.5% in 2026, as the effects of anticipated inventory buildup in the face of new U.S. tariffs normalize.

This growth is being driven by goods related to artificial intelligence. Although they represent only 15% of world tradeaccounted for 43% of 43% of the growth in the first half of 2025..

This reconfiguration is evidence of a profound change in business patterns, increasingly linked to strategic technologies technologies and less to labor costs or geographic proximity.

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The global investment paradox: fewer projects, more capital

UNCTAD’s latest UNCTAD’s latest Global Investment shows a contradictory scenario. While the foreign direct investment fell 3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, the total value of new investment grew 7% year-on-year in the first half of 2025.driven by megaprojects in semiconductors megaprojects in semiconductors, data centers and AI technologies..

United States stands out as the main investment destination (+5% in FDI), with more than half of the capital concentrated in IA. At Europainvestment fell by 25% in terms of the number of projects, but the total value increased by 48%, with France as the main beneficiary. At AsiaIn Asia, FDI rose 7%, but the value of industrial projects fell 37%.

The result is a concentration concentration of global capital in high-return technology sectors, while traditional technology sectors, while traditional manufacturing sectors are losing traction.

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Commodities: falling prices and structural volatility

Both the World Bank (Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2025) as McKinsey (Global Materials Perspective 2025) agree that commodity prices are going through a period of high volatility. cyclical correction phasewith an expected drop of 7% in 2025 and of the 6.8% in 2026.

According to the World Bank, the downturn is mainly due to weak global economic activity. weak global economic activity (particularly in China) and the oversupply of oil oil oversupply, which is dragging down the commodity index as a whole.which is dragging down the commodity index as a whole.

McKinsey qualifies that, beyond this cyclical moderation, structural volatility persists. structural volatility volatility stemming from the geographic concentration of supplythe nationalization of resources and the and the advance of protectionism, factors that limit marketThese factors limit market predictability and reinforce the fragmentation of world trade in raw materials.

By commodity, the situation is as follows:

• Energy: oil and gas prices will continue to retreat due to abundant supply and slowing demand.

• Agricultural products and foodstuffs: good harvests and high global inventories will keep downward pressure. The coffee and cocoa will rise temporarily due to climate problems before stabilizing in 2026.

• Copper: demand linked to energy transition, electrification and digital networks will continue to drive prices, which could reach record nominal highs by 2026. However, the limited supply and long lead times for opening new mines will maintain a risk of a structural deficit.

• Aluminum: shows a moderately upward evolution, sustained by infrastructure projects and restrictions on Russian supply, while high energy costs continue to condition its competitiveness and generate regional price differences.

• Tin: Will continue at historically high levels thanks to its essential role in clean technologies and electronic components. Myanmar’s export restrictions and limited refining capacity in other countries keep volatility high.

• Iron ore: will remain the bearish exception among the industrial metals. The The prolonged crisis in the Chinese real estate sector and lower steel demand are putting downward pressure on prices, with no signs of recovery in the short term.

Overall, the outlook combines short-term price declines with persistent supply risks. Industrial companies are facing an environment of more moderate, but less predictable costswhich requires diversification of suppliers y flexible planning in sourcing strategies.